Fee Fi Foe Film: Northwestern Offense

Date: November 13, 2025 • Author: Alex Drain

Fresh off a bye week, Michigan heads to Wrigley Field to face the Northwestern Wildcats. Northwestern sits at 5–4 and needs one more win for bowl eligibility. Michigan is 7–2 and on the edge of the College Football Playoff discussion. Northwestern’s defense remains the strength of the program, but the offense has a few intriguing storylines heading into this matchup.

Film Study: Nebraska (Week 8)

Northwestern’s Week 9 opponent, USC, fields a defense ranked No. 43 in SP+—not a great barometer for Michigan (No. 9). Instead, last week’s Nebraska game (No. 21 SP+) offers a closer look. The Huskers have a relative weakness at defensive tackle that Michigan does not, but overall their defensive quality is similar enough to draw useful conclusions.

Key Personnel

• QB Preston Stone (SMU transfer)
  • Proven starter at SMU but plagued by accuracy issues this season.
  • Completion % remains in the high-50s; interceptions have spiked.
  • Receives a “cyan circle” grade: talented on paper, but currently holding the offense back.
• RB Caleb Komolafe
  • Emerged after co-starter Cam Porter’s season-ending injury in Week 2.
  • Increased his average to 5.1 yards per carry (up from 2.8 YPC last year).
  • Now the bell cow, ranking 6th in the Big Ten in rushing yards.
• WR Griffin Wilde (South Dakota State transfer)
  • Team’s alpha receiver with 43 catches; no other WR has more than 20.
  • Operates effectively from the slot or outside.
  • The lone true vertical threat and Northwestern’s “Dangerman.”
• Supporting Wideouts
  • Hayden Eligon II (outside), Drew Wagner (slot) – competent but not game-breakers.
  • Ricky Ahumaraeze and Frank Covey IV – depth pieces only.
• Tight Ends
  • Lawson Albright and Hunter Welcing are primary receiving TEs; neither is a true weapon.
  • Alex Lines and Blake Van Buren rotate as blocking/backup TEs.
• Offensive Line
  • Primarily solid unit led by LT Caleb Tiernan (NFL draft top 50).
  • Interior: LG Ezomo Oratokhai, C Jackson Carsello, RG Evan Beerntsen.
  • RT is the lone weak spot (rotation between Martes Lewis and Deuce McGuire).

Scheme and Tendencies

Formation Splits (vs. Nebraska):
Shotgun: 93% of snaps
Under center: 7%

Play Distribution:
• First down: heavy run
• Second down: balanced
• Third/fourth down: pass-leaning

Personnel Packages:
• 11 personnel (1 RB + 1 TE + 3 WR)—often hides a TE in the slot.
• 12 personnel (1 RB + 2 TE + 2 WR).
• 13 personnel (1 RB + 3 TE + 1 WR) for extra tight-end sets.

Blocking Style: Northwestern runs primarily zone schemes—outside zone is the base. Gap concepts and occasional duo or counter appear sparingly.

Tempo: Slow, methodical. No meaningful uptempo or hurry-up packages observed. Typical play count: ~60 plays in ~30–35 minutes of possession.

Quarterback “Dilithium” Rating: 4/10

Preston Stone is a moderate runner who bails under pressure but not enough to threaten deep with his legs. His passing is the issue: poor footwork, inconsistent mechanics, a high rate of inaccurate throws, and a turnover problem (9 interceptions so far). Michigan’s defense can largely allow Stone time, trust that mistakes will come.

The Dangerman: WR Griffin Wilde

Wilde commands nearly all of Northwestern’s targets. Against Nebraska, he ran precise routes, adjusted to underthrown passes, and showed deep-threat ability—when Stone can connect. Without Wilde, the passing game lacks any explosive playmaker.

HenneChart Snapshot

Northwestern vs. Nebraska (Stone’s accuracy breakdown):

• Good Throws: 11
• Neutral/Marginal: 8
• Bad (Inaccurate/Turnover-Worthy): 13
• Completion Rate: 62%

Six inaccurate passes out of 28 attempts is historically poor in our film charting. Stone’s mechanics force him into off-platform throws, often resulting in interceptions or tipped passes.

Seasonal Offense Overview

Since the Week 1 loss to Tulane, Northwestern’s offense has been remarkably consistent in Big Ten play:

• Scoring range: 14–22 points
• Yards per play: 4.1–5.6
• Typical projection vs. league foes: ~17 points, ~5.0 YPP

That level has been enough to beat weaker teams (UCLA, Purdue) but insufficient against stronger offenses (Oregon, USC, Nebraska). Fundamentally, the talent ceiling is low at skill positions, and Stone’s inaccuracies cap the offense around the teens.

What This Means for Michigan

Northwestern’s offense is “not great” but better than in some recent seasons. They possess:

• A top-10 Big Ten running back in Caleb Komolafe
• A sturdy offensive line—only 12 sacks allowed all season
• One bona fide receiving threat in Griffin Wilde

They’re also 15th-worst nationally in turnover margin, largely due to Stone’s interceptions and fumbles.

Michigan’s Game Plan:

• Play straight-up defense—Stone will self-destruct enough without exotic blitzes.
• Stack the box to slow Komolafe; expect some chunk runs but limit big gains.
• Trust secondary to handle limited passing options beyond Wilde.
• Exploit Northwestern’s right tackle with occasional stunts or disguised pressure.

Projected offensive output for Northwestern vs. Michigan: ~4.0–4.5 YPP and 14 points—likely enough for a Wolverines victory at Wrigley Field.

https://mgoblog.com/content/fee-fi-foe-film-northwestern-defense-2025