Almost $5 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire on November 14, 2025, at 8:00 UTC on Deribit. This massive options expiry could shake the prices of BTC and ETH, potentially moving them toward their respective strike prices as expiration approaches.
Today’s expiry is slightly lower than last week’s $5.4 billion, but the stakes are higher as the market currently shows signs of weakness. As a result, traders and investors should pay close attention to max pain levels and market positioning, both of which could significantly impact short-term price action.
## Bitcoin Options Market Shows Cautious Optimism
Bitcoin options positioning highlights renewed caution after the pioneer crypto dipped below $100,000 for the second time in a week. According to Deribit data, the maximum pain point—the price at which the most traders would experience losses—sits at $105,000. As options near expiration, this level becomes a critical focus for market movements.
Meanwhile, the Put-to-Call Ratio (PCR) is 0.63, indicating that fewer put options are being traded compared to call options. This suggests a bullish or optimistic market sentiment, as traders are making larger bets on a market rebound.
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $99,092, down nearly 3% in the last 24 hours. The prevalence of bullish bets aligns with the “maximum pain” theory, which states that prices often gravitate toward this level due to the actions of institutional “smart money.”
A closer look at the charts reveals active hedging rather than panic selling. Open interest is concentrated near the $95,000 and $100,000 put options (yellow vertical bars) and the $108,000 and $111,000 call options (blue vertical bars), establishing these areas as key battlegrounds as expiration approaches.
Total open interest stands at 40,846 contracts, with calls (25,121) outnumbering puts (15,725). The notional value exceeds $4.04 billion, reflecting the immense scale of this expiry.
## Bullish Sentiment Seen in Ethereum Positioning
Ethereum options are also showing a defensive stance. As of now, ETH is trading near $3,224, with max pain close to $3,500. The notional value of Ethereum options stands above $730 million.
The put/call ratio is 0.64, slightly higher than that of BTC, but still reflecting strong bullish sentiment. This suggests that traders are purchasing significantly more calls than puts, expecting future price increases.
Indeed, the latest charts show 142,333 call options versus only 90,515 put options—a difference of more than 1.5x. Total open interest is 232,852 contracts.
## Macroeconomic Catalysts and Market Volatility
Today’s options expiry is occurring against a backdrop of broader market uncertainty, not limited to Bitcoin’s dip below $100,000. According to analysts at Greeks.live, several catalysts are in play, including the recently-resolved US government shutdown.
> “The US government ended an unprecedented 43-day shutdown, during which a significant amount of economic data was not released on schedule, forcing macroeconomic analysis to rely heavily on projections. The latest CPI data was also not published, significantly amplifying the importance and uncertainty surrounding the next release, as it grants the data agency greater ‘maneuvering room,’” they wrote.
The analysts also highlight the upcoming December Federal Reserve interest rate meeting as a pivotal event. Market uncertainty is being compounded by erratic macroeconomic data, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and the continued AI boom.
Open interest and trading volume remain on the rise in the options market, with a notable increase in out-of-the-money option trades. This indicates growing divergence among market participants about future outcomes, as evidenced by small increases across major implied volatility (IV) maturities.
> “Block trades have also become more active, skew is moving toward equilibrium, and the short-term curve has become more fragmented,” they explained.
## Prepare for Volatility
Considering all of these factors, heightened market uncertainty about near-term price movements is clearly evident. As the options expiry nears, traders should brace for increased volatility. However, history suggests that stability often returns after major expiries, giving markets a chance to adjust to the new trading environment.
Stay informed and watch these key levels closely to navigate the post-expiry landscape.
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/bitcoin/5-billion-bitcoin-and-ethereum-options-expire-today/