Week 11 might be the best slate of football all season. A loaded NFL schedule filled with future playoff matchups and division rivalry games makes this weekend both perilous for survivor pool players and exciting for watchers alike.
If you’re still in your survivor pool after the Saints upset the Panthers, you’re both sharp and lucky. In the major Las Vegas tournament, exactly 1,000 entries remain after 27 percent (490) were eliminated on the Panthers alone. Below, we evaluate an extremely tricky Week 11 slate with survival on our minds.
### Patriots (-12.5) vs. Jets
The clear top play of the week is on “Thursday Night Football.” New England is riding high after defeating the Buccaneers on the road. The Patriots have every advantage in this matchup, while the Jets’ two wins are mostly smoke and mirrors.
There is some reason to be cautious, though — my betting model currently has the Pats favored by eight points, so this is not a guaranteed smash spot. There is a case to take the Packers or Ravens this week as well.
### Dolphins (-2.5) vs. Commanders
How much do you still believe in the Dolphins? They’re not great, and they might not be the safest pick at this point in the season. However, if you’re looking to make a move on a team that few will have this week, the Dolphins could be a reasonable choice.
There are a few things to consider here. Miami played particularly well last week when they beat the Bills, with their defense standing out the most. They moved up from No. 29 in DVOA to No. 23, which may be a case of addition by subtraction. The Dolphins sold big at the trade deadline and might actually perform better as a result.
Injuries are also a factor. Miami is relatively healthy aside from Tyreek Hill, while the Commanders are expected to be without Jayden Daniels again this week. Washington has been on a steady downturn, moving from a top 10 DVOA team earlier in the season down to No. 19 overall.
If you believe the Dolphins are improving and the Commanders are trending down, Miami could be worth trusting.
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### Why Trust New York Post Betting?
Erich Richter is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but holds a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season, he has showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market over the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment has been an impressive 30.15 percent since 2022.
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If you’re betting on the NFL this week, be sure to check out our expert guide on how to bet on the NFL, plus the best NFL betting sites and get the latest BetMGM Bonus Code.
https://nypost.com/2025/11/11/betting/nfl-week-11-survivor-pool-guide-picks-analysis-strategy/