While the 2026 midterms remain the focus of congressional leaders, a brewing cauldron of hints and clues is coming to a boil regarding who will lead the Democratic Party into the 2028 presidential election.
For Republicans, the current standard-bearer is Vice President JD Vance who – assuming President Trump continues to support his wingman – appears to have the backing of both the GOP-aligned electorate and a significant number of elected leaders across the country.
But for Democrats, the question goes far beyond who may be able to launch a defense; it slips into the realm of which candidate is capable of remaking a party that has seen its support drop to historical lows.
## Kamala’s Echo Chamber
“I’m not done,” declared former Vice President Kamala Harris this Sunday during a BBC interview. Promoting her book, *107 Days*, the 2024 presidential candidate dropped the biggest hint yet that she is considering another bite at the apple.
“I have lived my entire career a life of service, and it’s in my bones … There are many ways to serve. I have not decided yet what I will do in the future beyond what I am doing right now,” she said. When pressed, she admitted that she would “possibly” make the play.
But just how popular a choice would she be? After all, she lost not only the popular vote but also all seven swing states. And yet, numbers do not seem to intrude on Harris’s own personal view of reality.
When the BBC host pointed out that she’s not exactly popular with voters, Harris replied: “I think there are all kinds of polls that will tell you a variety of things… I never listen to polls. If I had listened to polls, I never would have run for my first office or my second office, and I certainly wouldn’t be sitting here in this interview.”
If Vice President Harris had cultivated a group of trusted advisors during her time in office, perhaps they would have told her that, although polls are not predictions, they’re not meaningless either.
## Newsom Tacitly Enters the Ring
Speaking to CBS on the morning of October 26, California Governor Gavin Newsom dropped his biggest hint to date that he’s looking for work after his current term in office expires.
Asked whether he was plotting a 2028 campaign, he said, “Yeah, I’d be lying otherwise… I’d just be lying. And I’m not – I can’t do that.”
This marks definite progress from an earlier CBS interview this year where he bluntly responded, “I don’t know.”
Adding further fuel to the speculation fire, Newsom said: “Who the hell knows? I’m looking forward to who presents themselves in 2028 and who meets that moment. And that’s the question for the American people.”
As sure a thing as death and taxes, a seasoned politico stating that he is waiting to see if anyone takes up the crown is as close an affirmative as we are likely to get this far out.
## 2028 Markets Get Busy
Although we are still far from the Democratic Party presidential primary, and polling is extremely light on the ground, betting markets have already started making early plays.
Newsom is currently the favorite at 7/4 – a 36% probability of winning the nomination – followed by New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 11/2, representing a 15.4% chance of victory.
Way down on the list is former Vice President Harris, who holds an outsider chance of 20/1 – just a 4.8% probability.
Positioned between Harris and AOC is an array of figures who were big names during the Biden era, including Pete Buttigieg and a host of Democratic governors such as Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro, Maryland’s Wes Moore, Kentucky’s Andy Beshear, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, and Illinois’ JB Pritzker.
Each of these potential contenders enjoys high name recognition beyond their own state borders and the added advantage of not having lost a presidential election.
## But What About California?
For Newsom and Harris alike, there’s the unavoidable “California question.”
It’s no secret that the Golden State is considered a world apart from much of America. While it boasts a major economy and is the nation’s most populous state, it is also widely seen as a bastion of progressive thought and politics that is struggling to maintain order.
Open-air drug markets, rampant homelessness, and crime have become perceived hallmarks of California’s major cities.
For many Americans, this paints an unappetizing picture. Businesses are reincorporating in friendlier climates, and a mass exodus of residents suggests that all is not quite as golden as the state’s shining veneer proclaims.
This begs the question: How can a California candidate promise the American electorate that the values and policies contributing to their home state’s decline will not take root across the rest of the country?
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As the 2028 Democratic primary picture begins to take shape, these questions will become ever more critical in shaping the party’s future and its chance at retaking the White House.
https://www.libertynation.com/leading-democrats-eye-up-2028/