President Volodymyr Zelensky’s meeting on Friday with President Trump at the White House comes as both leaders are bolstered by a significant shift in Republican support for Ukraine. Recent polls indicate that Republicans are returning to their traditional hardline stance on Moscow. Backed by this shift, Mr. Trump is exerting a full-court press on the Kremlin, reminiscent of the effort that secured the Gaza peace accord.
In a potentially significant blow to Russia’s economy, Mr. Trump announced on Wednesday that Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India has promised to stop buying Russian oil. “I was not happy that India was buying oil, and he assured me today that they will not be buying oil from Russia,” Mr. Trump told reporters, referring to the Indian leader. “That’s a big step. Now we’re going to get China to do the same thing.”
Several Indian refiners are preparing to phase out purchases of oil from Russia, according to Reuters reports from New Delhi. Since Mr. Putin launched his major attack on Ukraine almost four years ago, Russia has been the largest source of oil for India, accounting for 36 percent of its imports. To pressure India to end these imports, Mr. Trump doubled tariffs on Indian goods in August. Trade talks between the two countries are underway this week in Washington.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters that the Senate is prepared to grant Mr. Trump the authority to impose 500 percent tariffs on Communist China over its imports of Russian oil. China and India are the two largest importers of Russian oil, which is the lifeblood of Russia’s economy.
“President Trump has instructed the ambassador and myself to tell our European allies that we would be in favour of whether you would call it a ‘Russian oil tariff’ on China or a ‘Ukrainian victory tariff’ on China,” Mr. Bessent said, speaking alongside the American Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. “But our Ukrainian or European allies have to be willing to follow. We will respond if our European partners join us.”
Also on Wednesday, Mr. Bessent posted on X that he told Japan’s Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, of “the Administration’s expectation that Japan stop importing Russian energy.” While Japan imports little Russian oil, gas from Russia’s Sakhalin project accounts for 9 percent of Japan’s liquefied natural gas imports.
At Brussels, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth attended his first meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a monthly aid conference he had shunned since February. Using a Reagan-era slogan for dealing with the Soviet Union, Mr. Hegseth urged NATO leaders to adopt a policy of “peace through strength” with respect to Russia. In a clear warning, he declared: “If we must take this step, the U.S. War Department stands ready to do our part in ways that only the United States can do.”
In February, Mr. Hegseth had lectured NATO leaders that the Trump administration had priorities other than Europe. This time, he emphasized: “If there is no path to peace in the short term then the United States, along with our allies, will take steps necessary to impose costs on Russia for its continued aggression.”
All week, Mr. Trump has dangled the threat of supplying Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles. This fall, Ukraine is expected to fire its own long-range missile, the Flamingo. The Tomahawk missiles have a similar range and warhead but are battle-tested, more accurate, and better at evading interceptors. Even a delivery of several dozen Tomahawks to Kyiv could devastate Russia’s drone factories and oil refineries.
Reports about the Tomahawks coincided with leaked information that the U.S. is providing targeting data to Ukraine. The Kremlin reacted with anger. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev posted on Telegram: “The delivery of these missiles could end badly for everyone. And first of all for Trump himself. One can only hope that this is another empty threat.” Currently the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, Mr. Medvedev often makes incendiary comments that carry the quiet approval of the Kremlin’s inner circle.
Then came Monday’s Gaza peace agreement. As TV cameras recorded, Mr. Trump turned to special envoy Steve Witkoff and said: “We have to get Russia done. We gotta get that one done. If you don’t mind, Steve, let’s focus on Russia first.” In response, the Kremlin adopted a conciliatory tone.
“We welcome the confirmation of the political will to do everything possible to promote the search for peaceful solutions,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday. “We are already well acquainted with Mr. Witkoff. He is effective and has proven his effectiveness now in the Middle East, and we hope that his talents will continue to contribute to work already underway in Ukraine.”
Mr. Trump can play hardball with Russia because his Republican base has shifted decisively toward a hardline position against Russia, moving away from earlier skepticism about Ukraine. Republican attitudes are shaped by Mr. Putin’s failure to act on Mr. Trump’s peace proposals in the spring, his intensified attacks on Ukraine following the Anchorage summit in August, and his recent incursions of drones and war jets into NATO territory.
The American president also sends out messages that energize his base. “Russia has been fighting aimlessly for three and a half years a War that should have taken a Real Military Power less than a week to win,” Mr. Trump posted on September 23 on Truth Social. “It is very much making them look like ‘a paper tiger.’”
Mr. Trump, who always wants to be on the side of a winner, increasingly portrays Russia as the loser in the war. “I don’t know why he continues with this war,” Mr. Trump said Tuesday. “He lost 1.5 million soldiers. They have long lines waiting for gasoline in Russia right now. His economy is going to collapse. He just doesn’t want to end that war. It’s making him look very bad.”
Kyiv-based analyst Peter Dickinson agrees, writing for the Atlantic Council: “Trump’s ‘paper tiger’ barb was meant as an insult, but it may be closer to the truth than Putin’s pretensions to great power status.”
One week after the “paper tiger” comment, Harris pollsters asked 2,413 registered voters if America should place more sanctions on Russia. Among Republicans, 87 percent said yes, compared to 71 percent of Democrats. Regarding whether Washington should pressure Europe to buy less Russian oil, 86 percent of Republicans said yes, and 76 percent of Democrats agreed.
On the question of providing more arms to Ukraine, Republicans have moved beyond calling it “Biden’s war.” Seventy-three percent of Republicans supported arming Ukraine, slightly more than the 72 percent of Democrats who did.
It remains unclear if Mr. Trump will proceed with the Tomahawk missiles. He appears to see the missiles as a strong negotiating card, one that would lose value once deployed. However, Friday’s White House meeting with Mr. Zelensky is expected to be vastly different from the contentious February meeting when Mr. Trump said Mr. Zelensky “doesn’t have the cards.”
In recognition of Ukraine’s expertise in drone warfare, Mr. Trump is expected to announce a major joint venture production deal. Mr. Zelensky has said the deal could span five years, with a $50 billion investment to produce 10 million drones annually.
https://www.nysun.com/article/trump-backed-by-republican-turnaround-plays-hardball-with-putin