Pooling lessons and resources

**Strengthening Bangladesh-Pakistan Relations Amidst Climate Change Challenges**

There is an urgent need to further strengthen Bangladesh-Pakistan relations in the backdrop of climate change and its profound impacts on both countries. These two nations are inseparably connected through the monsoon systems that span from the Bay of Bengal to the Arabian Sea. Both face climate-triggered disasters such as flash floods, mudslides, heat waves, droughts, tropical storms, and cyclones.

**Historical and Ecological Connections**

Bangladesh and Pakistan share profound historical ties dating back to their pre-independence existence. Before becoming sovereign states, both were integral components of British India, connected through shared governance systems, cultural practices, and economic interdependencies.

The Bengal region (now Bangladesh) and present-day Pakistan were sites of ancient civilizations linked by trading routes, including the historic Grand Trunk Road and maritime pathways. Ecologically, both countries are part of South Asia’s vast monsoon system that stretches from the Bay of Bengal to the Arabian Sea. This shared meteorological phenomenon has historically shaped agricultural practices, settlement patterns, and cultural rituals in both regions.

The monsoon winds that bring life-giving rains to Bangladesh continue westward, influencing Pakistan’s weather systems and creating ecological interdependencies that transcend modern political boundaries. Moreover, this monsoon system is intricately connected to the greater Himalayan ecosystem, with rivers originating from these mountains flowing through both countries—the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh and the Indus River system in Pakistan. These river systems have historically defined settlement patterns, agricultural methods, and cultural identities in both nations.

**Shared Climate Change Challenges**

Despite geographical differences, Bangladesh and Pakistan face strikingly similar climate change challenges. Both suffer from devastating floods with increasing frequency and severity.

– In Pakistan, the 2022 floods submerged one-third of the country, affecting over 33 million people and causing damages estimated at $30 billion.
– Bangladesh experiences annual floods, but their intensity has risen in recent years. The 2020 monsoon floods affected over 5.4 million people, submerging about 40% of the country.

Sea-level rise poses an existential threat to Bangladesh and increasingly impacts Pakistan’s coastal areas. Approximately 17% of Bangladesh’s land could be submerged by 2050 if global sea levels rise by one meter, potentially displacing 20 million people. Pakistan’s 990-kilometer coastline along the Arabian Sea, especially the city of Karachi—with over 16 million residents—is vulnerable to coastal flooding and erosion.

Saltwater intrusion compromises agricultural land in both countries:

– Bangladesh has lost approximately 200,000 hectares of arable land to salinity in recent decades.
– Pakistan’s Indus Delta has seen over 1.2 million acres affected by seawater intrusion.

*(Note: hectares and acres are used here; standardizing units for clearer comparison could be beneficial in future reports.)*

Tropical cyclones and severe storms remain shared threats. Bangladesh has historically suffered devastating cyclones originating from the Bay of Bengal, with Cyclone Amphan in 2020 causing $13 billion in damage. Heatwaves are increasingly deadly in both countries:

– Pakistan recorded one of the world’s highest temperatures at 53.7°C in Jacobabad in 2021.
– Bangladesh experienced record temperatures of 42.7°C in Rajshahi in 2019.

The 2022 pre-monsoon heatwave affected both countries simultaneously, causing hundreds of deaths and reducing agricultural yields. Urban heat island effects in densely populated cities like Dhaka and Karachi amplify these impacts. Karachi’s 2015 heatwave alone claimed over 1,200 lives.

**Slow-Onset Changes and Ecosystem Impacts**

Both nations are experiencing altered precipitation patterns due to climate change. Bangladesh has seen a 5.5% decrease in pre-monsoon rainfall since 1960, while Pakistan reports a 10-15% reduction in winter precipitation in some regions. Glacial melt impacts Pakistan more directly through its dependence on the Indus River system, where accelerated melting threatens long-term water security. Bangladesh endures downstream impacts of Himalayan glacial melt, which contributes to unpredictable river flows in the Ganges-Brahmaputra system.

**Economic and Social Implications**

Climate change severely impedes economic development in both countries, affecting multiple sectors and amplifying existing socioeconomic challenges.

– **Agriculture:** A cornerstone of both economies, agriculture faces severe disruptions.
– In Bangladesh, agriculture accounts for about 13% of GDP and employs 39% of the labor force. Projections estimate rice production could decline by up to 17% and wheat by up to 61% by 2050.
– In Pakistan, agriculture contributes approximately 24% to GDP and employs 42% of the workforce. Crop yields may reduce by 8–10% by 2040, with some regions experiencing up to 30% reductions in wheat and rice productivity.

– **Water Security:** Pakistan is already water-stressed, with per capita water availability declining from 5,600 cubic meters at independence to less than 1,100 cubic meters today. The World Bank projects this will drop below 1,000 cubic meters by 2035, officially classifying Pakistan as water-scarce. Bangladesh, although water-rich overall, faces seasonal scarcity and qualitative degradation through salinity and pollution.

– **Energy Infrastructure:** Hydropower generation in Pakistan, which provides about 30% of electricity, is vulnerable to erratic river flows. Bangladesh’s energy infrastructure, concentrated in low-lying areas, is threatened by flooding and cyclones; for instance, Cyclone Amphan damaged transmission lines in 2020, leaving millions without power.

– **Urbanization and Migration:** Climate factors drive rural-to-urban migration:
– Bangladesh receives approximately 400,000 urban migrants annually, with 30% driven by climate pressures. Dhaka’s slum population now exceeds 4 million, many being climate migrants.
– Pakistan’s urban growth is about 3% annually, with Karachi receiving an estimated 200,000 climate-affected migrants yearly from rural Sindh and Balochistan.

– **Public Health:** Both countries face strains on health systems due to climate-linked diseases.
– Bangladesh has seen a 12% increase in diarrheal diseases during flood periods and a record 100,000 dengue fever cases in 2019.
– Pakistan reports rising malaria in highland areas and over 2.7 million waterborne disease cases following the 2022 floods.

– **Poverty:** Climate change threatens poverty reduction efforts. The World Bank estimates an additional 62 million South Asians could be pushed into extreme poverty by 2030. Coastal areas in Bangladesh experience poverty rates 17% higher than the national average, while flood-exposed districts in Pakistan have poverty rates approximately 23% higher than less-affected regions.

**Climate Policy Approaches**

Bangladesh and Pakistan have developed differing climate policy frameworks reflecting their governance and priorities.

– **Bangladesh:**
– Emerged as a global leader in climate adaptation with its 2009 Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP).
– Established a Climate Change Trust Fund with an initial $100 million national allocation, showing political commitment.
– The Delta Plan 2100 integrates water management, food security, and resilience in an ambitious long-term framework.
– A dedicated Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change oversees climate mandates.
– Accessed over $800 million in international climate finance from sources like the Green Climate Fund.

– **Pakistan:**
– Adopted the National Climate Change Policy in 2012, updated in 2021, balancing adaptation and mitigation.
– Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) include a 20% emissions reduction target below 2030 projections, contingent on international support.
– Climate functions have been inside broader environmental ministries, varying over time.
– Traditionally relies on development finance with climate co-benefits; recent funds like the Ecosystem Restoration Fund are changing this.
– Climate-relevant spending is estimated at 5–6% of federal budget, compared to Bangladesh’s 7–8%.

**Trans-Boundary Climate Issues and Regional Cooperation**

Both countries share significant trans-boundary climate concerns with India, creating complex trilateral environmental interdependencies.

– **Water Resources:**
– Pakistan and India’s Indus Waters Treaty (1960) governs water sharing but faces strain due to climate change, glacial melt, and escalating water demand.
– Bangladesh and India share 54 rivers, including the Ganges and Brahmaputra, regulated in part by the Ganges Water Treaty.

– **Air Pollution:**
– The Indo-Gangetic Plain across Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh suffers from severe air pollution.
– Seasonal crop residue burning and industrial emissions in India degrade air quality in neighboring countries, causing an estimated 122,400 premature deaths annually in Bangladesh and 128,000 in Pakistan.

– **Climate-Induced Migration:**
– Bangladesh has seen around 1.5 million climate migrants move to India’s coastal areas.
– Pakistan-India migration is more restricted, but climate pressures drive seasonal labor movements along borders, potentially increasing irregular migration.

– **Disaster Management:**
– Coordination remains limited despite shared risks. Flooding in Nepal and India affects Bangladesh; India’s water management impacts downstream flood patterns in Pakistan and Bangladesh.
– Regional early warning systems for floods, cyclones, and glacial lake outburst floods require better integration.
– The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Disaster Management Centre exists but political tensions have limited effectiveness.

**Opportunities for Enhanced Bangladesh-Pakistan Climate Cooperation**

Building on historical ties and shared vulnerabilities, Bangladesh and Pakistan can strengthen climate collaboration through multiple avenues:

– **Knowledge Exchange:**
– Bangladesh’s expertise in community-based adaptation and disaster preparedness can aid vulnerable Pakistani communities.
– Pakistan’s experience with glacial melt monitoring in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram region provides valuable insights for Bangladesh’s river management.
– A formal Bangladesh-Pakistan Climate Knowledge Exchange Programme could facilitate cross-institutional learning.

– **Joint Research Initiatives:**
– Collaborative studies on climate-resilient agriculture suitable for both countries can enhance food security.
– Joint monitoring and research on monsoon patterns can improve seasonal forecasting vital for agriculture and disaster response.
– Partnering institutions such as Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology and Pakistan’s Global Change Impact Studies Centre can formalize research collaborations.

– **Diplomatic Coordination:**
– Coordinated positions at global climate forums—such as the Climate Vulnerable Forum, G77+China bloc, and UNFCCC Conferences—could amplify their influence as highly climate-vulnerable nations.

– **Economic Cooperation:**
– Preferential trade in climate-adaptive technologies and resilient agricultural products can benefit both economies.
– Joint investments in resilient port infrastructure will enhance economic connectivity while mitigating effects from sea-level rise and cyclones.
– Exploring bilateral carbon market mechanisms could foster funding for mitigation projects and strengthen economic ties.

– **Regional Integration:**
– Revitalizing SAARC’s climate cooperation efforts can benefit all member states.
– Bangladesh and Pakistan can jointly lobby to strengthen the SAARC Meteorological Research Centre for improved regional climate monitoring.
– Collaborative proposals for Green Climate Fund regional projects can mobilize resources for trans-boundary climate initiatives.

**Conclusion**

By leveraging their shared history, similar climate risks, and complementary strengths, Bangladesh and Pakistan can forge a productive climate partnership that enhances resilience and supports sustainable development goals. This cooperation, transcending complex historical relations, can serve as a model for climate diplomacy in South Asia—an increasingly critical tool as climate impacts intensify across the region. Collaborative climate action is not only beneficial but essential to ensure human security and sustainable development for both nations in the decades ahead.
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